First DeAndre, then Sammy

(That title sounded a lot better in my head)

Last year, Clemson produced a stand-out wide receiver prospect in DeAndre Hopkins, who went late in the 1st round to the Texans and had a very good rookie year, especially for a wide-out.  This year, Clemson has yet another stand-out receiver prospect, and he’s pretty much a lock to go much higher than Hopkins did.  That receiver would be none other than Sammy Watkins.  Watkins was easily the biggest playmaker on the Clemson offense this past season, and they (rightfully) ran most of their offense through him.  To be honest, I am not as high on Watkins as most others are, but he still has undeniable talent.  Part of that may be due to limited tape, as the only good tape I could find of Watkins spanned two games, and the rest of my knowledge on him came from what I took away about him from watching Tajh Boyd’s tape.  So, with that in mind, feel free to take this analysis with a grain of salt, but here I go.

Intangibles

Size for a wide receiver isn’t necessarily as important as it is for other positions, but it can determine what kind of wide receiver you can be.  Watkins is 6’1″, 205 lbs, so he is big enough, in both height and weight, to play on the outside or in the slot.  Basically, his size is not a limitation on him in any way, and his weight is pretty good for a college player of his height, and should give him an advantage against cornerbacks early in his career.  His size is also not too big to be an effective threat as a runner, and Clemson sure knew it and ran the ball with him a lot.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him reprise his role as a swiss-army knife kind of player with whatever team he ends up with, unless that team already has that kind of player (uh, did someone say Rams?).

As with everyone else, character is of course something to care about, and there are no negative reports about Watkins.  He doesn’t seem like the diva receiver type, or at least not right now, those kinds of things can always change with time.  Right now though, Watkins is 100% the kind of guy you want in your locker room.

Physical Skills

Watkins is a very fast player, and it shows by how Clemson used him.  They would try to get him the ball in open space on a majority of their plays, whether it be kickoff/punt returns, screen passes, swing passes, end arounds, handoffs, or just a regular old crossing route, the more they could get Watkins to be one on one with a defender the better, it seemed.  Not only is he fast in general, but Watkins has very good breakaway speed, and once he gets a couple steps on the last defender, he’s gone.  If you don’t want him to take it to the house on you, your cornerback has to make the play or you have to have safeties deep up top.  He is also a very athletic player and can jump up to go get the ball when it’s thrown high, and does a good job of coming down in bounds with the ball.  When it comes to a receiver’s most important skill, their hands, Watkins is definitely up there, but he isn’t among the best.  He will catch the balls that he should, and even make some difficult catches, but if he has to bail the quarterback out of a bad throw, he might be able to do it, but don’t count on it.

Blocking

A very underrated part of being a wide receiver at any level is being able to block, primarily in the running game.  While an excellent receiver who can’t block at all can be hid by just running a go route on running plays, it is of course always a plus to have a talented receiver who can block.  Watkins is good enough at run-blocking that he can be trusted to make blocks on a run-play, as opposed to just running downfield to take the cornerback out of the play.  However, he isn’t an excellent run-blocker, and probably shouldn’t be expected to block linebackers or other similarly sized players.  He is very good at following the proper blocking assignment, and will block the proper player instead of just blocking the guy lined up over him.

Technical skills

There are a lot of little things that receivers have to do right, and Watkins seems to do them quite well for the most part.  One major one is route running.  Now, if a receiver is extremely talented, like Watkins, they can get away with sub-par route running, but if not, well, that’s how you get Brandon LaFell.  Watkins, however, is a very good route runner.  He’s not perfect, but he doesn’t really round-off routes too much, and he’s always where he needs to be when the ball gets there.  Also, general awareness of how the play is developing is key to being a good receiver, and Watkins does that very well, following a scrambling quarterback to the other side of the field in order to make the throw easier once he finishes running his route.  Another key for receivers is the ability to run after the catch, and Watkins is not only fast, but he can break tackles.  He has a very good stiff arm, and is quite adept at breaking tackles after the catch.

Summary

Watkins is pretty much the real deal and as good as advertised.  He does pretty much everything well, but the only thing that really jumps out at you is his speed.  Because nothing really jumps out, I’m hesitant to anoint him a surefire top 5 pick that a lot of others are ready to do, but I do feel comfortable saying that he will definitely be an early 1st round pick.  Likely top 15 if not top 10. Watkins is the type of receiver that fits any team that isn’t 100% set at receiver, but there are more talented players at higher need positions at the top of the draft (Bridgewater, Clowney, Manziel, Bortles, Mack, etc.) who I feel will push him down the draft board a bit.  Regardless of his ultimate draft position, Watkins is likely to have a very long and very successful NFL career.

Games used for this analysis: 2012 vs. Virginia Tech, 2013 vs. Georgia

The Curious Case of Tajh Boyd

Tajh Boyd is another prospect that has really intrigued me as of late.  He was considered a first round pick by many at the beginning of the season, but by the time this year ended some were saying that he would be lucky to end up a 3rd round pick.  Now, unless a prospect gets hurt, their draft stock doesn’t drop that far unless it was inflated to begin with or people are overstating how low it is now.  The reason I felt I had to take a look at Boyd as early on as I did was to get a feel for why he dropped this far on many people’s boards and if it was warranted.  Was he relying on Sammy Watkins too much?  Was he not as good as originally stated? Were people overreacting to box scores? Did he rely on his legs too much? The answers, in short, no, yes, yes, yes.  Explanations for them and more in-depth answers are within the analysis, so without further ado, here we go.

Intangibles

Boyd is 6’1″ and 221 lbs, so he’s a little on the short side for a QB, but he’s definitely got the weight to take hits on the professional level.  His height likely won’t be a detriment too much, as he didn’t have issues with passes being batted down, and always seemed to do a good job of finding the passing lanes to throw in.  He also scrambled and rolled-out a lot, and so he didn’t have to worry about the O-Line getting in the way, something pro teams are doing more and more, so it’s not a habit he’ll have to break. Due to his size, and his speed, Boyd is very tough to bring down with one guy, both for sacks and in the open field.

The other major area of intangibles that I mention with every prospect, but emphasize with QBs, is character and the ability to lead, and this is one area where Boyd kind of lags behind other QBs.  Most of the time, he’s composed and has command over his team, but when things start to not go his way (This year against FSU comes to mind) he gets frustrated easily, starts forcing things, and gets a bit whiny.  Compare this to someone like Bridgewater who owns up to his errors and moves on without dwelling on them and you can see that Boyd could stand to improve in his maturity a bit.  Even Manziel, who people accuse of being a diva and whiny is much more composed than Boyd is when things go south on him.

Physical Skills

Boyd has a very strong arm, and can really zip it to his receivers, allowing him to throw the ball through very small windows.  He also can translate this arm strength to his deep ball, but sometimes it is to his detriment as he has a tendency to overthrow the deep ball a bit. His accuracy is a bit interesting because he will overthrow a bit on deep balls, hit the medium throws, and throw it behind his receivers on short throws and screens.  This is a bit worrying as a few inches of placement can be the difference between a touchdown and an incomplete pass or an incomplete pass and a pick-six.  Also, being unable to place screens and swing passes properly could lead to fumbles if they are behind the receivers.  He is a very good runner and can both shed tackles and avoid tacklers when in the open field and can use his running to his advantage when eluding pass rushers.  Clemson used his rushing skills very well and ran a lot of designed runs with him, which he did pretty well at.  When it’s needed, he can put touch on his passes quite well, and can make some beautiful sideline passes and goal-line fades.  Outside of his accuracy, his physical skills are quite good, but the accuracy leaves you wanting a bit more from Boyd’s production and can be very frustrating at times.

Fundamentals

For the most part, Boyd’s footwork when throwing and when moving in the pocket is very good, but he has a habit of sometimes turning his whole body toward his current read, which leads him to have odd foot placement in the pocket.  Since his footwork is mostly solid, this is something that should be able to be ironed out, but if it can’t it will be a detriment. He does an excellent job of finding the clean pocket, and if it isn’t there, he will roll-out and set his feet before throwing.  His mechanics are solid, but not exceptional.  He has a quick release, but the release point can be a bit inconsistent.  He drives through the ball well and has both his front arm and leg pointing at his target when throwing.  Every once in a while he’ll throw off his back foot when he really shouldn’t, so that is a little bit worrying. When he’s running he can get a bit reckless, and I don’t think I saw him slide once.  Even with his size, that’s something he’s going to want to change to avoid injury at the next level.

Clemson also liked to run the read-option, and sometimes Boyd would have trouble holding onto the ball while running it.  While he might not go to a team that runs the read-option, ball security on hand-offs is still an issue.  Boyd almost exclusively played out of the pistol as well, so it remains to be seen if he can excel in the shotgun or under center.

Mental

This is where the gap between Boyd and the top QBs in the class is clear.  This is also where it becomes clear that the first-round stock he had last year was inflated by good-looking stats. He progresses through a few reads, but doesn’t really go through his progressions like how you would like a pro QB to do. He reminds me a bit of Colin Kaepernick in that he has a tendency to look for his first read, and if its not there either throw it to the back in the flat or tuck it and run.  Of course, if Kaepernick does it, then it is possible to succeed while doing this, but, to do that, the rest of your game needs to be top notch, and Boyd’s is not, so this is a concern.  He actually takes this to the extreme sometimes, where he’ll run before finished making his first read or will force it to his first read if they’re covered, even if he could tuck and run for a decent gain.

His decision making also leaves quite a bit to be desired. There will be times where he has to be able to see the defender, but will throw it anyway, presumably because the defender isn’t blanketing his target.  Not a lot of these ended up as picks in college, but defensive backs are not going to miss those opportunities in the NFL.  He doesn’t sense pressure too well, and will tuck and run when no pressure is there, while other times he will sit in the pocket and let the opportunity to scramble and avoid the sack pass him by.  He will also sometimes run right into the blitz instead of into the open field, especially if the blitz has closed the first hole he saw. There will also be times when he is being brought down, and he will throw the ball anyway, leading to pop-ups that will be easy to be picked off.

Summary

All in all, Boyd was likely over-hyped coming into the year, but I feel he is equally under-valued right now.  If a team can get his issues ironed out, he reminds me a bit of Donovan Mcnabb in play-style and could be as good a quarterback, and if he even gets everything fixed outside of being able to move through his progressions, he could be a poor-man’s Colin Kaepernick.  However, if he doesn’t get the major stuff corrected, he might never get a chance to start.  If he has a good combine and has good workouts, I could see Boyd going in the late second, and if someone gets really desperate, he could go late 1st.  He could also have a terrible round of workouts and be a 6th or 7th round pick.  I think the most realistic prediction is that he’ll be a mid-round pick to a team like the Chargers who could use a young backup to groom as either an eventual replacement for their starter a la Ryan Mallett and Brock Osweiler or as trade bait, similar to the Redskins and Kirk Cousins.

Games used for this analysis: 2013 vs. Georgia, 2013 vs. Boston College, 2013 vs. Georgia Tech, 2013 vs. Syracuse, and 2013 vs. Florida State